NBA Play of the Day: Cavs +5 AND Suns +1... I got two Play of the Day(s) today to make up for the last two days. My model likes both of these days about equally so por que no los dos? Alright, so starting with the Cavs at Raptors, the first thing that jumped out at me was free throw rate, the Cavs are 6th in adjusted free throw rate, while the Raptors are last in FT rate, meaningful they put their opponent on the line a lot. In fact, the Raptors are in the bottom third in the league for many of the important defensive metrics, such as defensive rebounding, eFG% and TS%. The Cavs also have the advantage when on defense. The defend well on the road and are ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating, eFG%, TS% and FT rate. The Raptors do crash the offensive glass well, so the Cavs can't allow easy second chance points.
Game two, Suns +1, CP3 is back, and the Suns had a nice road win last night against a solid Wolves team. It's strength on strength when the Nuggets have the ball. The Suns are ranked 2nd in defensive rating while the Nuggets are ranked 5th in offensive rating. The advantage for the Suns comes when they have the ball. They are 6th in offensive rating where as the Nuggets are 28th in defensive rating. The Nuggets rebound well and don't put their opponents on the line, but the Suns should be able to generate enough offense to win the game.
3/23 Recap: -2.2 units
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