Play of the Day: Trail Blazers +6.5. This play is a rated as a 2.9 value according to my model. I think the biggest difference in this game and what the model is picking up on is the turnover and rebounding advantage the Blazers have. The Blazers are a top 10 defensive rebounding team at home, where the Wizards do not rebound well on the road. The Blazers are also pretty good at taking the ball away at home, they are ranked 7th in turnover percentage at home at take care of the ball on offense. The Wizards don't force many turnovers and are ranked in the bottom 5 in turnover % on defense. Lastly, the Wizards are coming off a loss and 50 by LeBron last night. Blazers cover with the model finding an advantage on the ML.
3/11 Recap: -1.45 units. First losing day, no worries.
Comments